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Learn main forecasting models from basic to expert level through a practical course with Python programming language.
What you’ll learn
Read S&P 500® Index ETF prices data and perform forecasting models operations by installing related packages and running code on Python PyCharm IDE.
Estimate simple forecasting methods such as arithmetic mean, random walk, seasonal random walk and random walk with drift.
Evaluate simple forecasting methods forecasting accuracy through mean absolute error and root mean squared error scale-dependent metrics.
Approximate simple moving averages and exponential smoothing methods with no trend or seasonal patterns such as Brown simple exponential smoothing method.
Estimate exponential smoothing methods with only trend patterns such as Holt linear trend, exponential trend, Gardner additive damped trend and Taylor multiplicative damped trend methods.
Approximate exponential smoothing methods with trend and seasonal patters such as Holt-Winters additive seasonality and Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality methods.
Select exponential smoothing method with lowest Akaike and Schwarz Bayesian information loss criteria.
Asses simple moving average and exponential smoothing methods forecasting accuracy through mean absolute error and root mean squared error scale-dependent metrics.
Identify Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average model integration order through level and differentiated first order trend stationary time series augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test.
Recognize autoregressive integrated moving average model autoregressive and moving average orders through autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions.
Estimate non-seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models such as random walk with drift, differentiated first order autoregressive, Brown simple exponential smoothing, Holt linear trend and Gardner additive damped trend models.
Approximate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models such as seasonal random walk with drift, seasonally differentiated first order autoregressive and Holt-Winters additive seasonality models.
Choose autoregressive integrated moving average model with lowest Akaike and Schwarz Bayesian information loss criteria.
Evaluate autoregressive integrated moving average models forecasting accuracy through mean absolute error and root mean squared error scale-dependent metrics.
Assess highest forecasting accuracy autoregressive integrated moving average model residuals or forecasting errors white noise requirement through Ljung-Box lagged autocorrelation test.
Requirements
Python programming language is required. Downloading instructions included.
Python Distribution (PD) and Integrated Development Environment (IDE) are recommended. Downloading instructions included.
Practical example data and Python code files provided with the course.
Prior basic Python programming language knowledge is useful but not required.
Description
Full Course Content Last Update 06/2018
Learn forecasting models through a practical course with Python programming language using S&P 500® Index ETF prices historical data. It explores main concepts from basic to expert level which can help you achieve better grades, develop your academic career, apply your knowledge at work or do your business forecasting research. All of this while exploring the wisdom of best academics and practitioners in the field.
Become a Forecasting Models Expert in this Practical Course with Python
Read S&P 500® Index ETF prices data and perform forecasting models operations by installing related packages and running code on Python PyCharm IDE.
Estimate simple forecasting methods such as arithmetic mean, random walk, seasonal random walk and random walk with drift.
Evaluate simple forecasting methods forecasting accuracy through mean absolute error and root mean squared error scale-dependent metrics.
Approximate simple moving averages and exponential smoothing methods with no trend or seasonal patterns such as Brown simple exponential smoothing method.
Estimate exponential smoothing methods with only trend patterns such as Holt linear trend, exponential trend, Gardner additive damped trend and Taylor multiplicative damped trend methods.
Approximate exponential smoothing methods with trend and seasonal patters such as Holt-Winters additive seasonality and Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality methods.
Select exponential smoothing method with lowest Akaike and Schwarz Bayesian information loss criteria.
Asses simple moving average and exponential smoothing methods forecasting accuracy through mean absolute error and root mean squared error scale-dependent metrics.
Identify Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average model integration order through level and differentiated first order trend stationary time series augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test.
Recognize autoregressive integrated moving average model autoregressive and moving average orders through autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation functions.
Estimate non-seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models such as random walk with drift, differentiated first order autoregressive, Brown simple exponential smoothing, Holt linear trend and Gardner additive damped trend models.
Approximate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models such as seasonal random walk with drift, seasonally differentiated first order autoregressive and Holt-Winters additive seasonality models.
Choose autoregressive integrated moving average model with lowest Akaike and Schwarz Bayesian information loss criteria.
Evaluate autoregressive integrated moving average models forecasting accuracy through mean absolute error and root mean squared error scale-dependent metrics.
Assess highest forecasting accuracy autoregressive integrated moving average model residuals or forecasting errors white noise requirement through Ljung-Box lagged autocorrelation test.
Become a Forecasting Models Expert and Put Your Knowledge in Practice
Learning forecasting models is indispensable for business or financial data science applications in areas such as sales and financial forecasting, inventory optimization, demand and operations planning, and cash flow management. It is also essential for academic careers in data science, applied statistics, operations research, economics, econometrics and quantitative finance. And it’s necessary for business forecasting research.
But as learning curve can become steep as complexity grows, this course helps by leading you step by step using S&P 500® Index ETF prices historical data for forecast modelling to achieve greater effectiveness.
Who this course is for?
Undergraduates or postgraduates at any knowledge level who want to learn about forecasting models using Python programming language.
Academic researchers who wish to deepen their knowledge in data science, applied statistics, operations research, economics, econometrics or quantitative finance.
Business or financial data scientists who desire to apply this knowledge in sales and financial forecasting, inventory optimization, demand and operations planning or cash flow management.
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